Florida's primary night: giving away a Black district, firing the MAGA moms, and the triumph of Angie Nixon

Florida went and Florida'd again, but there was good news amid the failures

Florida never fails to Florida.

Key Florida Democratic primary winners (L to R) Debbie Wasserman Schultz, David Jolly, Angie Nixon and Oliver Gilbert.

On Tuesday night, with a passel of candidates refusing to step aside and consolidate behind one opponent, Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz easily won the primary in the majority Black 20th congressional district.

Twenty years from now, few may remember that the seat was crafted under the Voting Rights Act as a Black opportunity district. By then, it might be known as “Debbie’s seat.” And she will owe exactly nothing to the Black residents of Broward County who split their votes among four other options rather than choosing her, after she carpet-bagged her way into the district to secure an easy win after her home district was gerrymandered by Ron DeSantis and the Republican state legislature. For those with a decent memory, however, this image may live in infamy: Missouri congressman Emanuel Cleaver, the former chairman of the same Congressional Black Caucus that is calling on Black America to stand by them as Republicans unleash gerrymandered Alito districts to steal their power, campaigned for her.

Elijah Manley, one of DWS’ four unconsolidated opponents, nailed it:

And he and others have an ominous prediction for her future in the heavily Black seat, particularly given that she failed to win even 50 percent of the vote despite facing so many opponents:

“African Americans are feeling under siege politically” after the Supreme Court weakened the Voting Rights Act this year, said Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor at the University of Central Florida. Jewett said he would expect Wasserman Schultz to lose if she were just running against one Black Democrat—but she’s running against four—which could split the Black vote.

“It’s possible that’s how she wins, which is a very cynical way to win an election, is hoping that your opponents split up the opposition so you could get in, although people don’t want you,” Manley, her opponent, said in a phone interview. “If she does squeeze by this time, she will have a consolidated field against her in 2028, very likely, and that will not be good for her.”

And that’s the alternative future: in which twenty years from now, people recall that for two years, the Black 20th District was governed by a temporary carpetbagger.

Which of those two outcomes turns out to be reality depends on how serious Black Florida political figures and organizers are about not just elections but actual power. If they are serious, they’ll start consolidating around ONE political figure who can organize opposition to Debbie; and begin funding them and introducing them to voters, and presenting voters with a reason to turn out in what will be a presidential election year. And whoever the consensus candidate is (Manley seems like a good option) they need to run an actual campaign— not a media, social media or familiarity campaign, as some candidates in the 20th did, but an actual, old fashioned campaign, with boots on the ground, donors contacted on the phone, and humans at the doors. Real talk. And non-viable candidates have got to put ego aside and stand down. How many times this lesson needs to be learned will I guess be determined by events.

Meanwhile in District 24, the rancid campaign against former State Senator Shevrin Jones proved effective at ensuring a primary win for retiring Rep. Frederica Wilson’s chosen successor, former Miami Gardens mayor and current Miami Dade commissioner, Oliver Gilbert.

Which means that in two of the most important sources of potential Black voters in the coming governor’s race, where former Republican David Jolly will face an uphill battle against Florida’s mini Clarence Thomas, Byron Donalds, the candidates on the ticket will be … let’s just say … less than inspiring. And Jolly, who also won his primary last night, will need help getting out the Black vote, which post-Obama and Andrew Gillum has seen anemic turnout.

Jolly is a genuinely good man, and would make a fine governor. He’s far more deserving of the position than the self-serving and MAGA servile Donalds. But Donalds goes into the general with two advantages: he’s a Republican (and Florida voters have proved time and time again that they will vote for a pile of cold mashed potatoes so long as it declares itself to be a Republican who will keep their taxes low); and he’s a Black man — which could potentially fool a small number of Black male voters into switching sides to support someone they assume is with them. I can assure you: he is not. But he will have the money to convince just enough people otherwise. This is why it would have been far better for Democrats to have exciting candidates win in the crucial 20th and 24th. Shev Jones is an inspiring candidate who could have brought both new Black and LGBTQ voters to the table; and Luther Campbell or Elijah Manley could have brought in Black football and hip hop dads (Luke) or young progressives (Manley) to the table. Instead, it’s gonna be an AIPAC November, with the potential for low turnout and a solid Republican advantage. As per Florida usual.

The bright side

On the bright side in Tuesday’s election, the Karens of Moms for Liberty, who swept into school board dominance with Ron DeSantis’ rise to the governorship and his and his party’s purge of “wokeness” and Black history from school curricula, got mollywhopped statewide, including the hypocritical threesome fan from Sarasota:

Megan Tennimon and Beth Mayberry each won School Board seats outright Tuesday, defeating candidates endorsed by the Republican Party of Sarasota County. And in the race to replace Board Chair Bridget Ziegler, Jimmy Glover finished first and advanced to November against Republican-backed Heidi Brandt.

The results guarantee a different balance of power on a Board that has spent much of the past four years at the center of Florida’s fights over education, parental rights and culture-war politics.

School Board races are nonpartisan and open to all voters, but the campaign around them has been anything but politically neutral in recent years.

DeSantis played a direct role in creating the majority now disappearing as he prepares to leave office. In 2022, he endorsed Ziegler and Tim Enos. DeSantis’ political committee financed campaign mail supporting them and Robyn Marinelli. All three won, joining Karen Rose to give conservatives a 4-1 majority on the five-member Board.

DeSantis remained involved as the Board’s politics shifted. He backed Rose in her unsuccessful 2024 re-election campaign, then appointed her to a different School Board seat in 2025 after voters had removed her from office and Enos resigned.

The appointment restored the conservative bloc’s 3-2 majority. However, Ziegler and Marinelli did not seek another term. Rose, serving by appointment, also did not seek a full term. That left voters with three open seats and an opportunity to reshape a School Board whose politics have often drawn attention well beyond Sarasota County.

Moms for Liberty gets booted by both parties

Tennimon and Mayberry will now join Liz Barker and Tom Edwards, who have routinely opposed the conservative bloc.

Tennimon won the District 4 race with more than 56,000 votes, or 55%, defeating Frank DiCicco, who received about 45%. Mayberry won District 5 with nearly 58,000 votes, or 57%, over Michelle Pozzie, who received 43%.

And having already lost their mojo in Broward County, Moms for Liberty has been reduced to a minor player in the state; much like their patron, Ron DeSantis. I love that for them.

And in the most exciting statewide race Tuesday night, Angie Nixon shocked the world with a sound romping of former intelligence officer Alexander Vindman, a good and decent man who has defended his birth country, Ukraine, against the Russia-loving Trump Regime. But the Democratic Socialist Medicare for All supporter defied the establishment and the pollsters with a sound victory in the primary, for the chance to face Marco Rubio’s fill-in, Ashley Moody, the incumbent, in November.

Here’s The Guardian’s writeup:

In an upset for the Democratic establishment, progressive Angie Nixon won the party’s US Senate primary in Florida, beating former army intelligence officer Alexander Vindman.

Nixon, a state representative and member of the Democratic Socialists of America, had significantly less funding going into the primary – with $975,000 to Vindman’s $16.3m at the end of July, according to Florida Politics.

But she won by a clear margin. Nixon received 56.1% of the vote, according to the Associated Press, ahead of Vindman’s 43.9%.

Vindman served on the national security council in Donald Trump’s first term and became a well-known whistleblower and witness in the US president’s first impeachment, centered on Trump pressuring Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, to investigate Joe Biden.

Indeed, Nixon was outspent 16 to 1 and Vindman had the backing of the national Democratic establishment. Her victory represents a solid victory for progressives — if not for the DSA itself, given that the word on the ground is that the left wing party didn’t do much to help her. She has risen on her own history and determination to fight Ron DeSantis, gerrymandering, and right wing fascism in the state.

Here was her speech following her surprise victory:

More about Rep. Nixon, who will soon stand trial for … protesting …

Florida State Representative Angie Nixon just defeated Alex Vindman, the presumed frontrunner, in the state’s Democratic Senate primary—even though Vindman raised roughly sixteen times as much money as Nixon.

Nixon, 42, helped lead the fight against Republican-led redistricting in Florida that disproportionately supports GOP voters, who are mostly white. According to the Miami Herald, 86 percent of Florida’s congressional districts will favor the GOP, even though only 41 percent of voters are registered Republicans. The three-time state lawmaker from Jacksonville protested the bill during an April legislative session and videos of her wielding a pink bullhorn and declaring “this is a violation of the constitution” went viral. Nixon also staged a sit-in at the governor’s office in May, where she was arrested and faces a jury trial on charges of trespassing and resisting an officer without violence in September.

Despite Democratic opposition, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis approved the new map in May. In June, the state’s Supreme Court allowed the new map to stay in effect for the upcoming 2026 US House elections.

Nixon ran on an affordability platform, pushing Medicare for All, free childcare and family leave, and a national rent freeze and moratorium on evictions. She touted endorsements from Reps. Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib, and Maxwell Frost and—featured prominently on her website—the children’s content creator and activist Miss Rachel.

Angie Nixon is now the best hope for change in Florida, though as you can see from the stark disparity in statewide turnout between Republicans and Democrats, her climb will be completely uphill. But she could have down-ticket coattails and get-out-the-vote potentially if the national Democratic establishment doesn’t get to her, slap the usual losing white consultants onto her campaign (so those consultants keep getting richer), and try to modulate her into yet another mushy moderate who is uninspiring to young voters, Black voters, and voters of color. To avoid that, true progressives and experts in voter mobilization should start gathering around the sister now, to head off the DSCC losing campaign “experts,” not to mention the “race free” strategy of the DSA. Florida might be the hardest state for Democrats to win (and I say that, even with Mississippi and Texas in mind.) But if Nixon can inspire improved voter turnout, it won’t just help her, it could also help David Jolly and fellow candidates down to the state house and senate and the now nearly Moms for Liberty-free school board.

As my Muslim friends would say: inshallah.

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